Econometric analysis of determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria (1960-2015)

Waheed IBRAHIM

Abstract

[...]This study investigates the determinants of real effective exchange rate in Nigeria for the period between 1960 and 2015 using vector error correction mechanism to separate long run from the short run fundamentals. The findings from the regression estimates revealed that; terms of trade, openness of the economy, net capital inflow and total government expenditure were the major long run determinants of real effective exchange rate in the country while variables such as; broad money supply (M2), nominal effective exchange rate, structural adjustment programme dummy, June 12 crisis and change to civil rule dummies were revealed as the major short run determinants of exchange rate in Nigeria between 1960 and 2015. The study concludes by recommending that since the major variable of terms of trade (crude oil price) is out of the government control, the effect of shocks from the fluctuations of crude oil price can be minimize by shifting the economy from a mono-product nation and diversify the economy to increase productive capacity. Also, the change to civil rule dummy used in the study revealed that the system has not been friendly with the country’s real effective exchange rate, thus need to review the system and bring out all negative activities there in to ensure Nigeria’s currency appreciation. Guided openness is also suggested to avert the danger that unguided trade liberalization may bring into the country.

Keywords

Exchange rate; Terms of trade; Openness; Civil rule; SAP; Government expenditure

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About The Author

Waheed IBRAHIM
Al-Hikmah University, Ilorin
Nigeria

Department of Economics

PhD

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